Yamisleydi Salgueiro

Yamisleydi Salgueiro

Especialidad: Machine learning, multi-objective optimization, knowledge-driven optimization.
Yamisleydi es graduada en ciencias de la computación y máster en informática aplicada. Recibió su Ph.D. en ciencias técnicas de la Universidad Central de Las Villas, Cuba en 2017. Actualmente es académica del Departamento de Ingeniería Industrial de la Facultad de Ingeniería en la Universidad de Talca.

PUBLICACIONES

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) are a type of recurrent neural network with built-in meaning in their architecture, originally devoted to modeling and scenario simulation tasks. These knowledge-based neural systems support feedback loops that handle static and temporal data. Over the last decade, there has been a noticeable increase in the number of contributions dedicated to developing FCM-based models and algorithms for structured pattern classification and time series forecasting. These models are attractive since they have proven competitive compared to black boxes while providing highly desirable interpretability features. Equally important are the theoretical studies that have significantly advanced our understanding of the convergence behavior and approximation capabilities of FCM-based models. These studies can challenge individuals who are not experts in Mathematics or Computer Science. As a result, we can occasionally find flawed FCM studies that fail to benefit from the theoretical progress experienced by the field. To address all these challenges, this survey paper aims to cover relevant theoretical and algorithmic advances in the field, while providing clear interpretations and practical pointers for both practitioners and researchers. Additionally, we will survey existing tools and software implementations, highlighting their strengths and limitations towards developing FCM-based solutions.

The rise of decentralized energy sources and renewables demands advanced grid planning, with short-term load forecasting (STLF) playing a crucial role. Energy demand in smart grids is highly variable and influenced by external factors, making accurate forecasting challenging. While deep learning models excel in time-series forecasting, their ability to integrate exogenous variables remains uncertain. This study evaluates different deep learning architectures for STLF, including recurrent (Long Short-Term Memory, LSTM), probabilistic (Deep Autoregressive, DeepAR), attention-based (Temporal Fusion Transformer, TFT), and foundation models (TimeLLM), each designed to capture temporal dependencies differently. The “Smart Meters in London” dataset, comprising 1.6 million energy consumption records enriched with weather and socio-demographic data, was used for evaluation. Results show that incorporating exogenous variables reduces forecasting error, with TFT achieving a test MAE of 1.643, RMSE of 2.903, and sMAPE of 18.8% on a lower-variability subset, leveraging long-range dependencies for enhanced predictions. DeepAR outperformed other models on the larger, noisier dataset, achieving a test MAE of 1.699, RMSE of 3.310, and sMAPE of 18.8%, demonstrating strong generalization. LSTM performed reasonably well but struggled to utilize exogenous information, leading to higher forecasting errors. TimeLLM, despite tailored prompting for time-series forecasting, failed to outperform task-specific models, with a test MAE of 2.193, RMSE of 3.473, and sMAPE of 22.89%, highlighting the challenges of adapting foundation models trained on different modalities to structured time-series forecasting. Beyond predictive accuracy, interpretability analysis challenges the assumption that attention mechanisms reliably capture feature importance. Performance degradation analysis revealed that perturbing features ranked highly by SHAP values and permutation feature importance led to sharper error increases than attention-based rankings, with permutation demonstrating the strongest correlation with prediction errors. These findings underscore the role of Explainable AI (XAI) in time-series forecasting, emphasizing the need for robust interpretability frameworks to ensure transparency in deep learning-based predictions.

Publisher: Elsevier,  Knowledge-Based Systems  Link>

ABSTRACT

Time series similarity evaluation is a crucial processing task performed either as a stand-alone action or as a part of extensive data analysis schemes. Among essential procedures that rely on measuring time series similarity, we find time series clustering and classification. While the similarity of regular (not temporal) data frames is studied extensively, there are not many methods that account for the time flow. In particular, there is a need for methods that are easy to interpret by a human being. In this paper, we present a concept-based approach for time series similarity evaluation. Firstly, a global model describing a given dataset of time series (made of two or more time series) is built. Then, for each time series in the dataset, we create the corresponding local model. Comparing time series is performed with the aid of their local models instead of raw time series values. In the paper, the described processing scheme is implemented using fuzzy sets representing concepts. The proposed approach has been applied to the task of time series classification, yielding highly satisfactory results.


Publisher:  IEEE Computational Intelligence Magazine Link>

ABSTRACT

This paper proposes an algorithm called Forward Composition Propagation (FCP) to explain the predictions of feed-forward neural networks operating on structured classification problems. In the proposed FCP algorithm, each neuron is described by a composition vector indicating the role of each problem feature in that neuron. Composition vectors are initialized using a given input instance and subsequently propagated through the whole network until reaching the output layer. The sign of each composition value indicates whether the corresponding feature excites or inhibits the neuron, while the absolute value quantifies its impact. The FCP algorithm is executed on a post-hoc basis, i.e., once the learning process is completed. Aiming to illustrate the FCP algorithm, this paper develops a case study concerning bias detection in a fairness problem in which the ground truth is known. The simulation results show that the composition values closely align with the expected behavior of protected features. The source code and supplementary material for this paper are available at https://github.com/igraugar/fcp.

Publisher: Neurocomputing  Link>

ABSTRACT

This paper introduces a novel zero-data learning algorithm tailored for Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) models utilized in control applications where we must maintain concepts’ activation values within predefined intervals. Our approach allows domain experts to specify these intervals and optionally impose weight constraints, ensuring the algorithm produces feasible models. At the core of our approach lies a mathematical formalism that approximates the smallest feasible activation space for each neural concept, which translates into lower and upper bounds for concepts’ activation values. Moreover, a parameterized quasi-nonlinear reasoning rule allows controlling whether or not the network converges to a unique fixed point. The learning goal of our algorithm narrows down to computing a weight matrix minimizing the error between the analytical bounds and the target intervals specified by domain experts. To address such a constrained minimization problem, we employ numerical methods operating with approximate gradients, which provide highly accurate solutions with short execution times. The main contribution of our learning algorithm is that it does not require any training data to compute the network structure. Therefore, by accurately approximating the specified activation intervals, our learning algorithm guarantees that the outputs produced by the FCM model will remain within these intervals regardless of the initial conditions used to start the recurrent reasoning process.

This paper introduces a novel zero-data learning algorithm tailored for Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) models utilized in control applications where we must maintain concepts’ activation values within predefined intervals. Our approach allows domain experts to specify these intervals and optionally impose weight constraints, ensuring the algorithm produces feasible models. At the core of our approach lies a mathematical formalism that approximates the smallest feasible activation space for each neural concept, which translates into lower and upper bounds for concepts’ activation values. Moreover, a parameterized quasi-nonlinear reasoning rule allows controlling whether or not the network converges to a unique fixed point. The learning goal of our algorithm narrows down to computing a weight matrix minimizing the error between the analytical bounds and the target intervals specified by domain experts. To address such a constrained minimization problem, we employ numerical methods operating with approximate gradients, which provide highly accurate solutions with short execution times. The main contribution of our learning algorithm is that it does not require any training data to compute the network structure. Therefore, by accurately approximating the specified activation intervals, our learning algorithm guarantees that the outputs produced by the FCM model will remain within these intervals regardless of the initial conditions used to start the recurrent reasoning process.

Quasi-nonlinear Long-term Cognitive Networks (LTCNs) are an extension of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) for simulation and prediction problems ranging from regression and pattern classification to time series forecasting. In this extension, the quasi-nonlinear reasoning allows the model to escape from unique fixed-point attractors, while the unbounded weights equip the network with improved approximation capabilities. However, training these neural systems continues to be challenging due to their recurrent nature. Existing error-driven learning algorithms (metaheuristic-based, regression-based, and gradient-based) are either computationally demanding, fail to fine-tune the recurrent connections, or suffer from vanishing/exploding gradient issues. To bridge this gap, this paper presents a learning procedure that employs numerical iterative optimizers to solve a regularized least squares problem, aiming to enhance the precision and generalization of LTCN models. These optimizers do not require analytical knowledge about the Jacobian or the Hessian and were carefully chosen to address the inherent challenges of training recurrent neural networks. They are devoted to solving nonlinear optimization problems using trust regions, linear or quadratic approximations, and interpolations between the Gauss–Newton and gradient descent methods. In addition, we explore the model’s performance for several activation functions including piecewise, sigmoid, and hyperbolic variants. The empirical studies indicate that the proposed learning procedure outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms to a significant extent.

Publisher: Springer, Neural Computing and Applications  Link>

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we present a recurrent neural system named long short-term cognitive networks (LSTCNs) as a generalization of the short-term cognitive network (STCN) model. Such a generalization is motivated by the difficulty of forecasting very long time series efficiently. The LSTCN model can be defined as a collection of STCN blocks, each processing a specific time patch of the (multivariate) time series being modeled. In this neural ensemble, each block passes information to the subsequent one in the form of weight matrices representing the prior knowledge. As a second contribution, we propose a deterministic learning algorithm to compute the learnable weights while preserving the prior knowledge resulting from previous learning processes. As a third contribution, we introduce a feature influence score as a proxy to explain the forecasting process in multivariate time series. The simulations using three case studies show that our neural system reports small forecasting errors while being significantly faster than state-of-the-art recurrent models.


Publisher: Elsevier, Renewable Energy Link>

ABSTRACT

Time series processing is an essential aspect of wind turbine health monitoring. In this paper, we propose two new approaches for analyzing wind turbine health. Both methods are based on abstract concepts, implemented using fuzzy sets, which allow aggregating and summarizing the underlying raw data in terms of relative low, moderate, and high power production. By observing a change in concepts, we infer the difference in a turbine's health. The first method evaluates the decrease or increase in relatively high and low power production. This task is performed using a regression model. The second method evaluates the overall drift of extracted concepts. A significant drift indicates that the power production process undergoes fluctuations in time. Concepts are labeled using linguistic labels, which makes our model easier to interpret. We applied the proposed approach to publicly available data describing four wind turbines, while exploring different external conditions (wind speed and temperature). The simulation results have shown that turbines with IDs T07 and T06 degraded the most. Moreover, the deterioration was clearer when we analyzed data concerning relatively low atmospheric temperature and relatively high wind speed.


Publisher: MDPI, Link>

ABSTRACT

Software Defined Networking (SDN) is a communication alternative to increase the scalability and resilience of microgrid hierarchical control. The common architecture has a centralized and monolithic topology, where the controller is highly susceptible to latency problems, resiliency, and scalability issues. This paper proposes a novel and intelligent control network to improve the performance of microgrid communications, solving the typical drawback of monolithic SDN controllers. The SDN controller’s functionalities are segregated into microservices groups and distributed through a bare-metal Kubernetes cluster. Results are presented from PLECS hardware in the loop simulation to validate the seamless transition between standard hierarchical control to the SDN networked microgrid. The microservices significantly impact the performance of the SDN controller, decreasing the latency by 10.76% compared with a monolithic architecture. Furthermore, the proposed approach demonstrates a 42.23% decrease in packet loss versus monolithic topologies and a 53.41% reduction in recovery time during failures. Combining Kubernetes with SDN microservices can eliminate the single point of failure in hierarchical control, improve application recovery time, and enhance containerization benefits, including security and portability. This proposal represents a reference framework for future edge computing and intelligent control approaches in networked microgrids.


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